Max Kingsley-Jones’ Post

Some super Airbus 1980s pre-FBW throwback action in this clip: A310 and A300-600R cc Maximo Gainza 😀

Market Values for the Gulfstream Aerospace #G450 have been adjusted downwards following the latest review by Cirium Ascend Consultancy. Older vintages have seen the largest falls since our last review, with declines of up to 20%, while there were smaller percentage reductions for younger aircraft. Further details from my Cirium colleague Youcef Berour Minarro here: https://lnkd.in/dVyVkVtU #Businessaviation #aircraftvalues #Aviation #Aviationindustry #Aircraft #AviationFinance #Cirium 

Some Cirium data powered International Air Transport Association (IATA) insight...

Cirium data shows that almost half of total of 66 Boeing 737 Max shipments in Q1 2024 came from the undelivered stockpile that has included aircraft that originally flew as long ago as five years ago. For the purposes of this data snapshot, I’ve defined “inventory” as aircraft that flew before October 2023. However, all but four of the 32 “inventory” deliveries in Q1 actually completed their maiden flight in 2019-2022. The clearance for the restart of Max deliveries to China in January has allowed Boeing to finally begin shipping its large stockpile of these long-delayed aircraft. No surprise that Chinese airlines accounted for a quarter (17) of all Max deliveries in Q1. India also received a large share – 10 aircraft - all of which were from inventory. Many of these aircraft were originally part of the Chinese stockpile and had been reallocated by Boeing as the China delivery suspension dragged on. The wide-ranging consequences for Boeing that followed the Alaska Air 737-9 accident on 5 January has been significantly impacting the OEM’s ability to sustain a stable delivery rate of aircraft from the line, with only 34 shipped in Q1. Of this three-month delivery tally, almost half (15 aircraft) was achieved in January.  Cirium data indicates that there are still over 100 737-8/9 Max aircraft remaining in the undelivered stockpile, and most should be shipped through the rest of this year. However, the question remains just how many new Max aircraft Boeing can be fly and deliver over the coming months to supplement those inventory shipments. Key to this will be the length and the outcome of the FAA’s audit.

Headed to Toulouse today to visit Airbus, travelling by CFM International (CFM) Leap-powered British Airways A320neo (G-TTNF). It occurred to me that it’s almost 26 years since I made a similar trip from LHR by BA A320 in August 1998 for what was set to be a historic aviation moment. BA laid on a special flight operated by one of its ex-BCAL-ordered A320s (an A320-100 (G-BUSC), so no wingtip fences!) which would form the backdrop to the announcement of BA’s first-ever Airbus order by respective CEOs Bob Ayling and Noel Forgeard (with UK prime minister Tony Blair also dropping in). Cirium data shows that to date BA has taken delivery of almost 170 new Airbus aircraft (including that initial batch of 10 "ex-BCAL" A320s from 1988), and has 20 more on order.

Following research by Cirium Ascend Consultancy's Value Review Board, the Airbus #A320neo and Boeing #737Max families have seen some adjustments to Market Values and Market Lease Rates (MLR). Values and rentals have seen some increases and some stability, depending on type and variant. But one interesting consequence of the changes is that monthly lease rates for new-build A320-200neo and 737-8 aircraft have both now reached $400,000. Aside from a brief period in early 2015 shortly prior to first A320neo shipments, this MLR level has not been seen in our opinions since mid-2008, when the A320-200 and 737-800 could command up to $425,000, before the global financial crisis quickly collapsed these in Q3 2008. More details about the changes: https://lnkd.in/eAT--ysk #aircraftfinance Cirium #aviationfinance #airlines

The Cirium Ascend Consultancy Value Review Board has implemented large increases to Cirium Market Values for the Boeing 777-200LRF. The installed fleet of over 250 aircraft remains highly active, with few in storage and no near-term availability. Read more: https://lnkd.in/ee2VzgPV #airfreight #cargo #aircraftfinance #Cirium

Cirium’s Market Lease Rates for the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 families have risen by up to 10%, following evaluations by the Cirium Ascend Consultancy Value Review Board. Data on new and used aircraft trading supports our current Market Value opinions, which remain stable at this review following double digit percentage increases in Q4 2023. More details: https://lnkd.in/evtVhHQ8 #aviationfinance